Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis

We carry out a reading analysis that consists of two elements. First, we observe the coherence between monetary policy actions and press releases. In this case, we found that inflation and growth are significant themes in the adoption of the policy measures between September 2004 and March 2016. Mor...

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Autores Principales: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo, Pantoja, Javier, Velásquez, Carlos Alberto
Formato: Documento de trabajo (Working Paper)
Lenguaje:Inglés (English)
Publicado: Banco de la República de Colombia 2017
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Acceso en línea:http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6337
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spelling oai:RI-BanRep:20.500.12134-63372019-04-16T16:33:37Z Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo Pantoja, Javier Velásquez, Carlos Alberto Minería de textos Análisis de contenido Análisis semántico latente Comunicaciones del Banco Central E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit E4 - Money and Interest Rates C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics Text mining Content analysis Latent semantic analysis Central bank’s communications Bancos centrales -- Comunicados de prensa -- Colombia -- 2004-2016 Banco de la República (Bogotá) -- Comunicados de prensa -- 2004-2016 Banco de la República (Bogotá) -- Comunicaciones -- Análisis del discurso -- 2004-2016 Colombia -- Política económica -- Comunicados de prensa -- 2004-2016 Política monetaria -- Comunicados de prensa -- Análisis del discurso -- Colombia -- 2004-2016 E5 - Política monetaria, bancos centrales, oferta de dinero y crédito C4 - Métodos econométricos y estadísticos: temas especiales E4 - Dinero y tipos de interés We carry out a reading analysis that consists of two elements. First, we observe the coherence between monetary policy actions and press releases. In this case, we found that inflation and growth are significant themes in the adoption of the policy measures between September 2004 and March 2016. Moreover, when inflation and economic growth are both raising the monetary actions becomes tighter. Nevertheless, economic activity has always coefficients greater than those of inflation. In second place, the monetary authority goes beyond explanations in the press releases: there are some traces of forward guidance in a number of communications with different degrees of commitment. We also assess whether Colombia’s Central Bank uses its communications as a complementary monetary policy tool and estimate the effectiveness of this strategy. To do so, we use a machine learning technique to unveil the semantic structure of the central bank´s communications. This technique allows us to extract some semantic factors that are used in a structural VAR to identify and measure the impact of these communications on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that Colombia’s Central Bank uses communications as a monetary policy tool and that this strategy influences market inflation expectations. 2017-10-19 2017-10-19 Working Paper Documentos de trabajo Published Version http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6337 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12134/6337 eng Documentos de trabajo Borradores de Economía Borradores de Economía; No. 1024 https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1024.html Open Access https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Acceso abierto Atribucion-NoComercial-CompartirIgual CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 Las opiniones contenidas en el presente documento son responsabilidad exclusiva de los autores y no comprometen al Banco de la República ni a su Junta Directiva. 20 páginas : gráficas, tablas PDF application/pdf Bogotá Banco de la República de Colombia Bengio, Y., Ducharme, R., Vincent, P., and Jauvin, C. (2003). A neural probabilistic language model. Journal of machine learning research, 3(Feb), 1137-1155. Bholat, D. M., Hansen, S., Santos, P. M., and Schonhardt-Bailey, C. (2015). Text mining for central banks: handbook. Centre for Central Banking Studies (33). pp. 1-19. Blinder, A.S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzcher, M., De Haan, J., and Jansen, D.J., 2008, Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence.
institution Repositorio Institucional del Banco de la República de Colombia
collection DSpace
language Inglés (English)
topic Minería de textos
Análisis de contenido
Análisis semántico latente
Comunicaciones del Banco Central
E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E4 - Money and Interest Rates
C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
Text mining
Content analysis
Latent semantic analysis
Central bank’s communications
Bancos centrales -- Comunicados de prensa -- Colombia -- 2004-2016
Banco de la República (Bogotá) -- Comunicados de prensa -- 2004-2016
Banco de la República (Bogotá) -- Comunicaciones -- Análisis del discurso -- 2004-2016
Colombia -- Política económica -- Comunicados de prensa -- 2004-2016
Política monetaria -- Comunicados de prensa -- Análisis del discurso -- Colombia -- 2004-2016
E5 - Política monetaria, bancos centrales, oferta de dinero y crédito
C4 - Métodos econométricos y estadísticos: temas especiales
E4 - Dinero y tipos de interés
spellingShingle Minería de textos
Análisis de contenido
Análisis semántico latente
Comunicaciones del Banco Central
E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E4 - Money and Interest Rates
C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
Text mining
Content analysis
Latent semantic analysis
Central bank’s communications
Bancos centrales -- Comunicados de prensa -- Colombia -- 2004-2016
Banco de la República (Bogotá) -- Comunicados de prensa -- 2004-2016
Banco de la República (Bogotá) -- Comunicaciones -- Análisis del discurso -- 2004-2016
Colombia -- Política económica -- Comunicados de prensa -- 2004-2016
Política monetaria -- Comunicados de prensa -- Análisis del discurso -- Colombia -- 2004-2016
E5 - Política monetaria, bancos centrales, oferta de dinero y crédito
C4 - Métodos econométricos y estadísticos: temas especiales
E4 - Dinero y tipos de interés
Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo
Pantoja, Javier
Velásquez, Carlos Alberto
Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis
description We carry out a reading analysis that consists of two elements. First, we observe the coherence between monetary policy actions and press releases. In this case, we found that inflation and growth are significant themes in the adoption of the policy measures between September 2004 and March 2016. Moreover, when inflation and economic growth are both raising the monetary actions becomes tighter. Nevertheless, economic activity has always coefficients greater than those of inflation. In second place, the monetary authority goes beyond explanations in the press releases: there are some traces of forward guidance in a number of communications with different degrees of commitment. We also assess whether Colombia’s Central Bank uses its communications as a complementary monetary policy tool and estimate the effectiveness of this strategy. To do so, we use a machine learning technique to unveil the semantic structure of the central bank´s communications. This technique allows us to extract some semantic factors that are used in a structural VAR to identify and measure the impact of these communications on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that Colombia’s Central Bank uses communications as a monetary policy tool and that this strategy influences market inflation expectations.
format Documento de trabajo (Working Paper)
author Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo
Pantoja, Javier
Velásquez, Carlos Alberto
author_facet Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo
Pantoja, Javier
Velásquez, Carlos Alberto
author_sort Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo
title Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis
title_short Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis
title_full Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis
title_fullStr Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis
title_full_unstemmed Effects of the central bank’s communications in Colombia : a content analysis
title_sort effects of the central bank’s communications in colombia : a content analysis
publisher Banco de la República de Colombia
publishDate 2017
url http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6337
_version_ 1637303506138300416
score 10,182204