Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix

This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finan...

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Autores Principales: Arbeláez, María A., Poterba, James, Ayala, Ulpiano
Publicado: 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/11445/1600
id ir-11445-1600
recordtype dspace
spelling ir-11445-16002020-10-02T16:58:38Z Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix Arbeláez, María A. Poterba, James Ayala, Ulpiano Política Fiscal Déficit Fiscal Misión del Ingreso Público Colombia Macroeconomía, Política Monetaria y Fiscal This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal policy is not sustainable. Substantial increases in the government s fiscal surplus are needed in order to return to a regime in which the debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize in several decades- Our base can analysis suggests that stabilizing the debt-to GDP ratio at 45% by the year 2030 would require a 1,8% of GDP reduction in the fiscal deficit, effective immediately. This assumes that the social security reforms introduced in the last Congress are enacted- If they are not, the required adjustment in the fiscal deficit is several percentage points greater. This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal policy is not sustainable. Substantial increases in the government s fiscal surplus are needed in order to return to a regime in which the debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize in several decades- Our base can analysis suggests that stabilizing the debt-to GDP ratio at 45% by the year 2030 would require a 1,8% of GDP reduction in the fiscal deficit, effective immediately. This assumes that the social security reforms introduced in the last Congress are enacted- If they are not, the required adjustment in the fiscal deficit is several percentage points greater. H60 H62 H63 Este informe no ha sido formalmente editado 2015-12-10T12:12:34Z 2016-01-21T02:39:01Z 2017-04-18T21:16:13Z 2017-06-17T18:12:34Z 2015-12-10T12:12:34Z 2016-01-21T02:39:01Z 2017-04-18T21:16:13Z 2017-06-17T18:12:34Z 2002-12 http://hdl.handle.net/11445/1600 application/pdf
institution Fedesarrollo
collection DSpace
topic Política Fiscal
Déficit Fiscal
Misión del Ingreso Público
Colombia
Macroeconomía, Política Monetaria y Fiscal
spellingShingle Política Fiscal
Déficit Fiscal
Misión del Ingreso Público
Colombia
Macroeconomía, Política Monetaria y Fiscal
Arbeláez, María A.
Poterba, James
Ayala, Ulpiano
Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
description This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal policy is not sustainable. Substantial increases in the government s fiscal surplus are needed in order to return to a regime in which the debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize in several decades- Our base can analysis suggests that stabilizing the debt-to GDP ratio at 45% by the year 2030 would require a 1,8% of GDP reduction in the fiscal deficit, effective immediately. This assumes that the social security reforms introduced in the last Congress are enacted- If they are not, the required adjustment in the fiscal deficit is several percentage points greater.
author Arbeláez, María A.
Poterba, James
Ayala, Ulpiano
author_facet Arbeláez, María A.
Poterba, James
Ayala, Ulpiano
author_sort Arbeláez, María A.
title Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
title_short Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
title_full Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
title_fullStr Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
title_full_unstemmed Debt and deficits: Colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
title_sort debt and deficits: colombia's unsustainable fiscal mix
publishDate 2015
url http://hdl.handle.net/11445/1600
_version_ 1684779051845156864
score 11,828437