Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior

Los experimentos de elección intertemporal se implementan con frecuencia para hacer inferencias sobre las preferencias de tiempo, aunque se sabe poco sobre el poder predictivo de las medidas resultantes. Este proyecto vincula las opciones experimentales estándar con una decisión sobre el deseo de su...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores Principales: Aycinena, Diego, Blazsek, Szabolcs, Rentschler, Lucas, Sprenger, Charles
Formato: Documento de trabajo (Working Paper)
Lenguaje:Español (Spanish)
Publicado: 2020
Materias:
D1
D3
D90
Acceso en línea:https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/28279
id ir-10336-28279
recordtype dspace
institution EdocUR - Universidad del Rosario
collection DSpace
language Español (Spanish)
topic Estimación estructural
Descuentos
Presupuesto de tiempo convexo
Predicción fuera de muestra
Economía financiera
Structural estimation
Discounting
Convex Time Budget
Out-of-sample prediction
D1
D3
D90
spellingShingle Estimación estructural
Descuentos
Presupuesto de tiempo convexo
Predicción fuera de muestra
Economía financiera
Structural estimation
Discounting
Convex Time Budget
Out-of-sample prediction
D1
D3
D90
Aycinena, Diego
Blazsek, Szabolcs
Rentschler, Lucas
Sprenger, Charles
Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
description Los experimentos de elección intertemporal se implementan con frecuencia para hacer inferencias sobre las preferencias de tiempo, aunque se sabe poco sobre el poder predictivo de las medidas resultantes. Este proyecto vincula las opciones experimentales estándar con una decisión sobre el deseo de suavizar un pago de grandes apuestas (alrededor del 10% de los ingresos anuales) a lo largo del tiempo. En una muestra de alrededor de 400 receptores de transferencias monetarias condicionadas en Guatemala, encontramos que las preferencias sobre los planes de pago de grandes apuestas se predicen de cerca mediante medidas experimentales de paciencia y utilidad marginal decreciente. Estos representan los primeros hallazgos en la literatura sobre el contenido predictivo de preferencias intertemporales obtenidas experimentalmente para decisiones de gran importancia.
format Documento de trabajo (Working Paper)
author Aycinena, Diego
Blazsek, Szabolcs
Rentschler, Lucas
Sprenger, Charles
author_facet Aycinena, Diego
Blazsek, Szabolcs
Rentschler, Lucas
Sprenger, Charles
author_sort Aycinena, Diego
title Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
title_short Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
title_full Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
title_fullStr Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
title_full_unstemmed Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior
title_sort intertemporal choice experiments and large-stakes behavior
publishDate 2020
url https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/28279
_version_ 1712098431621660672
spelling ir-10336-282792021-08-30T20:01:11Z Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior Aycinena, Diego Blazsek, Szabolcs Rentschler, Lucas Sprenger, Charles Estimación estructural Descuentos Presupuesto de tiempo convexo Predicción fuera de muestra Economía financiera Structural estimation Discounting Convex Time Budget Out-of-sample prediction D1 D3 D90 Los experimentos de elección intertemporal se implementan con frecuencia para hacer inferencias sobre las preferencias de tiempo, aunque se sabe poco sobre el poder predictivo de las medidas resultantes. Este proyecto vincula las opciones experimentales estándar con una decisión sobre el deseo de suavizar un pago de grandes apuestas (alrededor del 10% de los ingresos anuales) a lo largo del tiempo. En una muestra de alrededor de 400 receptores de transferencias monetarias condicionadas en Guatemala, encontramos que las preferencias sobre los planes de pago de grandes apuestas se predicen de cerca mediante medidas experimentales de paciencia y utilidad marginal decreciente. Estos representan los primeros hallazgos en la literatura sobre el contenido predictivo de preferencias intertemporales obtenidas experimentalmente para decisiones de gran importancia. Intertemporal choice experiments are frequently implemented to make inference about time preferences, yet little is known about the predictive power of resulting measures. This project links standard experimental choices to a decision on the desire to smooth a large-stakes payment — around 10% of annual income — through time. In a sample of around 400 Guatemalan Conditional Cash Transfer recipients, we find that preferences over large-stakes payment plans are closely predicted by experimental measures of patience and diminishing marginal utility. These represent the first findings in the literature on the predictive content of experimentally elicited intertemporal preferences for large-stakes decisions. 2020-08-24 2020-08-25T19:45:46Z info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper info:eu-repo/semantics/draft Aycinena, Diego; Blazsek, Szabolcs; Rentschler, Lucas; Sprenger, Charles (2020) Intertemporal Choice Experiments and Large-Stakes Behavior. 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score 12,131701