Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associate...

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Autores Principales: Krause, A., Haverd, V., Poulter, B., Anthoni, P., Quesada, B., Rammig, A., Arneth, A.
Formato: Artículo (Article)
Lenguaje:Inglés (English)
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123
id ir-10336-23873
recordtype dspace
spelling ir-10336-238732022-05-02T12:37:21Z Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning Krause, A. Haverd, V. Poulter, B. Anthoni, P. Quesada, B. Rammig, A. Arneth, A. Climate change Ecological modeling Ecosystem function Ecosystem service Environmental indicator Evapotranspiration Future prospect Land use change Terrestrial ecosystem Climate change projections Ecosystem service indicators Land use change Legacy effects Terrestrial ecosystems Vegetation modeling Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to ?0.021 ± 0.007 and ?0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered. © 2019. The Authors. 2019 2020-05-26T00:06:17Z info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess application/pdf John Wiley and Sons Inc instname:Universidad del Rosario
institution EdocUR - Universidad del Rosario
collection DSpace
language Inglés (English)
topic Climate change
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem function
Ecosystem service
Environmental indicator
Evapotranspiration
Future prospect
Land use change
Terrestrial ecosystem
Climate change projections
Ecosystem service indicators
Land use change
Legacy effects
Terrestrial ecosystems
Vegetation modeling
spellingShingle Climate change
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem function
Ecosystem service
Environmental indicator
Evapotranspiration
Future prospect
Land use change
Terrestrial ecosystem
Climate change projections
Ecosystem service indicators
Land use change
Legacy effects
Terrestrial ecosystems
Vegetation modeling
Krause, A.
Haverd, V.
Poulter, B.
Anthoni, P.
Quesada, B.
Rammig, A.
Arneth, A.
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
description Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to ?0.021 ± 0.007 and ?0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered. © 2019. The Authors.
format Artículo (Article)
author Krause, A.
Haverd, V.
Poulter, B.
Anthoni, P.
Quesada, B.
Rammig, A.
Arneth, A.
author_facet Krause, A.
Haverd, V.
Poulter, B.
Anthoni, P.
Quesada, B.
Rammig, A.
Arneth, A.
author_sort Krause, A.
title Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_short Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_full Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_fullStr Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_full_unstemmed Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_sort multimodel analysis of future land use and climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning
publisher John Wiley and Sons Inc
publishDate 2019
url https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123
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score 12,131701