More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia

Este documento estima el impacto de las carreteras rurales en los conflictos armados y los cultivos ilícitos en Colombia durante un período de catorce años de rápido crecimiento de las inversiones en carreteras. Estimamos el impacto causal de estas intervenciones utilizando microdatos de los ingreso...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores Principales: Moreno, Laura E., Gallego, Jorge A., Vargas, Juan F.
Otros Autores: Grupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosario
Formato: Documento de trabajo (Working Paper)
Lenguaje:Español (Spanish)
Publicado: 2020
Materias:
H41
H54
O12
D2
D74
O11
O4
R4
Acceso en línea:https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21920
id ir-10336-21920
recordtype dspace
institution EdocUR - Universidad del Rosario
collection DSpace
language Español (Spanish)
topic Carreteras
Bienes públicos
Conflicto armado
Economías ilegales
Regalías
Economía de la tierra
Problemas sociales & bienestar social en general
Roads
Public Goods
Armed Conflict
Illegal Economies
Royalties
H41
H54
O12
D2
D74
O11
O4
R4
spellingShingle Carreteras
Bienes públicos
Conflicto armado
Economías ilegales
Regalías
Economía de la tierra
Problemas sociales & bienestar social en general
Roads
Public Goods
Armed Conflict
Illegal Economies
Royalties
H41
H54
O12
D2
D74
O11
O4
R4
Moreno, Laura E.
Gallego, Jorge A.
Vargas, Juan F.
More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
description Este documento estima el impacto de las carreteras rurales en los conflictos armados y los cultivos ilícitos en Colombia durante un período de catorce años de rápido crecimiento de las inversiones en carreteras. Estimamos el impacto causal de estas intervenciones utilizando microdatos de los ingresos por regalías para el sector del transporte a nivel municipal e implementamos una estrategia de Diferencia en Diferencias con adopción escalonada. Los resultados muestran que los nuevos caminos rurales, en particular los pequeños proyectos conocidos como placa-huella, tienen un efecto causal positivo en los conflictos armados y en los cultivos de coca. Estos efectos no deseados de la provisión de carreteras se deben principalmente a la intensificación de la violencia en los municipios más ricos. En estos lugares, encontramos que la nueva conectividad conduce a un aumento en la producción de cultivos legales. Por lo tanto, los municipios más ricos son más atractivos para los grupos armados y más vulnerables a los ataques que buscan expropiar estas nuevas rentas. Además, el contexto institucional parece ser determinante en el signo del efecto: en municipios con instituciones calificadas y estables, la provisión de carreteras mitiga el desarrollo de actividades ilegales. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de proporcionar bienes públicos en paralelo con el fortalecimiento de la capacidad del estado local a través de instituciones confiables.
author2 Grupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosario
author_facet Grupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosario
Moreno, Laura E.
Gallego, Jorge A.
Vargas, Juan F.
format Documento de trabajo (Working Paper)
author Moreno, Laura E.
Gallego, Jorge A.
Vargas, Juan F.
author_sort Moreno, Laura E.
title More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
title_short More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
title_full More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
title_fullStr More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
title_full_unstemmed More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia
title_sort more roads, more conflict? the effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in colombia
publishDate 2020
url https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21920
_version_ 1667829996386779136
spelling ir-10336-219202020-05-18T12:18:16Z More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia Moreno, Laura E. Gallego, Jorge A. Vargas, Juan F. Grupo de Investigaciones. Facultad de Economía. Universidad del Rosario Carreteras Bienes públicos Conflicto armado Economías ilegales Regalías Economía de la tierra Problemas sociales & bienestar social en general Roads Public Goods Armed Conflict Illegal Economies Royalties H41 H54 O12 D2 D74 O11 O4 R4 Este documento estima el impacto de las carreteras rurales en los conflictos armados y los cultivos ilícitos en Colombia durante un período de catorce años de rápido crecimiento de las inversiones en carreteras. Estimamos el impacto causal de estas intervenciones utilizando microdatos de los ingresos por regalías para el sector del transporte a nivel municipal e implementamos una estrategia de Diferencia en Diferencias con adopción escalonada. Los resultados muestran que los nuevos caminos rurales, en particular los pequeños proyectos conocidos como placa-huella, tienen un efecto causal positivo en los conflictos armados y en los cultivos de coca. Estos efectos no deseados de la provisión de carreteras se deben principalmente a la intensificación de la violencia en los municipios más ricos. En estos lugares, encontramos que la nueva conectividad conduce a un aumento en la producción de cultivos legales. Por lo tanto, los municipios más ricos son más atractivos para los grupos armados y más vulnerables a los ataques que buscan expropiar estas nuevas rentas. Además, el contexto institucional parece ser determinante en el signo del efecto: en municipios con instituciones calificadas y estables, la provisión de carreteras mitiga el desarrollo de actividades ilegales. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de proporcionar bienes públicos en paralelo con el fortalecimiento de la capacidad del estado local a través de instituciones confiables. This paper estimates the impact of rural roads on armed conflict and illicit crops in Colombia over a fourteen year period of rapid growth of road investments. We estimate the causal impact of these interventions using micro-data of the royalties revenues to the transport sector at the municipal level, and implement a strategy of Difference-in-Differences with staggered adoption. The results show that new rural roads, in particular small projects known as placa-huella, have a positive causal effect on armed conflict and on coca crops. These unintended effects of road provision are mainly driven by the intensification of violence in wealthier municipalities. In these places, we find that the new connectivity leads to an increase in the production of legal crops. Hence, wealthier municipalities are more attractive to armed groups and more vulnerable to attacks that seek to expropriate these new rents. In addition, the institutional background seems to be determinant in the sign of the effect: in municipalities with qualified and stable institutions, road provision mitigates the development of illegal activity. These results highlight the importance of providing public goods in parallel with strengthening the local state capacity through reliable institutions. 2020-05-07 2020-05-08T19:16:32Z info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper Moreno, Laura E.; Gallego, Jorge A.; Vargas, Juan F. (2020) More roads, more conflict? The effect of rural roads on armed conflict and illegal economies in Colombia. Universidad del Rosario, Department of Economics, Documentos de trabajo economía. 48 pp. https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21920 spa Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/co/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess application/pdf reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR instname:Universidad del Rosario Acemoglu, D, Robinson, J. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty, 2012. 1st ed. New York: Crown, 529. Abraham, S., Sun, L. Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects in Event Studies with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects, 2019. Available at SSRN 3158747. Angrist, J. D., A. D. Kugler. Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia, 2008. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 191–215. Arias, M. A., Camacho, A., Ibanez, A. M., Mej ˜ ´ıa, D., Rodr´ıguez, C. Costos econ´omicos y sociales del conflicto en Colombia: ¿c´omo construir un posconflicto sostenible?, 2014. Ediciones Uniandes-Universidad de los Andes. Arias, M. A., and Ibanez, A. M. ˜ Conflicto armado en Colombia y producci´on agr´ıcola: ¿aprenden los peque ˜nos productores a vivir en medio del conflicto?, 2012. No. 1509-2016-130912, pp. 1-38. Armenteras, D., Rudas, G., Rodr´ıguez, N., Sua, S., Romero, M. Patterns and causes of deforestation in the Colombian Amazon, 2006. Ecol. Indic. 6, 353–368. Athey, S., Imbens, G. Desing based analysis in Difference-In-Differences Settings with Staggered Adoption, 2018. NBER working paper No. 24963. Baires, W., Dinarte, L. Unintended effects of Public Infrastructure: Labor, Education and Crime outcomes in El Salvador., 2017. Working Paper. Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., Qian, N. On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China, 2012. National Bureau of Economic Research (No. w15897). Balcazar, A., Rodr ´ ´ıguez, C., Tierra para uso agropecuario, 2013. In: Perfetti, J., Balcazar, ´ A., Hernandez, A., Leibovich, J., (Eds.), Pol ´ ´ıticas para el desarrollo de la agricultura en Colombia. Fedesarrollo, Sociedad de Agricultores de Colombia (SAC), Incoder, Finagro, Banco Agrario, pp. 248. Banister, D., Berechman, Y., Transport Investment and Economic Development, 2003. Second Ed. Routledge, London. Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies. Poverty Impacts of Rural Roads and Markets Improvement and Maintenance Project of Bangladesh, 2004. BIDS, Dhaka. Benziger, V. Urban Access and Rural Productivity Growth in Post-Mao China, 1996. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 44:539-70. Bertrand, M., Duflo, E., Mullainathan, S. How much should we trust differences-in-differences estimates?, 2004. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 249–275. Bergquist, C. Violence in Colombia: The contemporary crisis in historical perspective, 1992. Analisis Pol ´ ´ıtico, (17), 106-108. Besley, T., Persson, T. The Origins of State Capacity: Property Rights, Taxation, and Politics, 2009. American Economic Review 99 (4): 1218–44. Besley, T., Persson, T. Pillars of Prosperity: The Political Economics of Development Clusters, 2011. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Binswanger, et al. How Infrastructure and Financial Institutions Affect Agricultural Output Investment In india, 1993. Journal of Development Economies, 41:337-66. Bryceson, D. F., Howe, J. Rural Household Transport in Africa: Reducing the Burden on Women?, 1993. World Development 21:1715-28. Colonnelli, E., Prem, M. Corruption and Firms: Evidence from randomized audits in Brazil, 2017. D’arcy, M., Nistotskaya, M. State first, then democracy: Using cadastral records to explain governmental performance in public goods provision, 2017. Governance, 30(2), 193-209. Cortes, D., Montolio, C. ´ Publicness of Goods and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Colombia, 2013. Serie de Documentos de Trabajo, No. 137, Universidad del Rosario. National Planning Department. Mejoramiento de v´ıas terciarias - v´ıas de tercer orden, 2018. Dion, M.L., Russler, C. Eradication efforts, the state, displacement and poverty: explaining coca cultivation in Colombia during plan Colombia, 2008. J. Latin Am. Stud. 40, 399-421. Donaldson, D. Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure, 2010. NBER Working Paper No. 16487. Dube, O., Vargas, J. F. Commodity price shocks and civil conflict: Evidence from Colombia, 2013. The Review of Economic Studies, 80(4), 1384-1421. Esteban, J., Ray, D. Collective action and the group size paradox, 2001. American Political Science Review, 95 (3):663-672. Etter, A., McAlpine, C., Wilson, K., Phinn, S., Possigham, H. Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia, 2006. Agric. Ecosyst. Eviron. 114 (2), 369-386. Fan, S, et al. Government Spending, Growth, and Poverty in Rural India, 2000. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 82:1038-51. Fiszbein, A. The Emergence of local capacity: Lessons from Colombia, 1997. World development, 25(7), 1029-1043. Fundacion Gaia Amazonas, NGO. La Amazonıa Transformada, 2018. Electronic resource, available in: https://encrucijada.amazoniasocioambiental.org/story/la−amazonia− transformada?lang=es Gallego, J., Maldonado, S., Trujillo, L. Curse or Blessing? Institutional Reform and Resource Booms in Colombia, 2019. Working Paper, Universidad del Rosario. Garzon, J. ¿Por que el aumento de la coca no ha disparado la violencia?, 2017. Fundacion Ideas para la Paz. Hoyle, B., Knowles, R., Transport geography: an introduction, 1998. In: Hoyle, B., Knowles, R. (Eds.) Modern Transport Geography. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, pp. 1-12. Instituto Nacional de Vıas, Transformando a Colombia. Programa de Obra Publica: Corredores de Paz, 2017. Colombia’s Governmnt. Jain, S., Singh, V.P. Water Resources Systems Planning and Management, 2003. In Developments in Water Science. Jacoby, H.G. Access to markets and the benefits of rural roads, 2000. The Economic Journal, 110(465), 713-737. Kirk, R. More terrible than death: Massacres, Drugs and America’s War in Colombia, 2003. New York: Public Affairs. Kunkeler, J., Peters, K., The boys are coming to town: Youth, armed conflict and urban violence in developing countries, 2011. International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 5 (2), 277-291. Lakshmanan, T.R., Chatterjee, L.R. Economic consequences of transport improvements, 2005. Access (26), 28-33. Leinbach, T. R., Transport Evaluation in Rural Development: An Indonesian Case Study, 1983. Third World Planning Review 5:23-35. Leinbach, T., Transport and third world development: review, issues, and prescription, 1995. Transportation Research A 29 (5), 337–344 Levy, Hernan. Morocco: Socioeconomic Influence Influence of Rural Roads, 1996. Evaluation Report, Operations Evaluation Department, World Bank, Washington, DC. Linneker, B., Spence, N., Road Transport Infrastructure and regional economic development: the regional development effects of the M25 London orbital motorway. 1996. Journal of Transport Geography 4 (2), 77-92. Lokshin, M., Ruslan, Y., Has Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation in Georgia Helped the poor?, 2005. World Bank Economic Review 19:311-33. MacKinnon, D., et al., Transport and Economic development., 2008. Ed. Transport Geographies: Mobility Flows and Spaces. Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 10-28. Mann, M. The Sources of Social Power, 1986. Volume I: A History of Power from the Beginning. Mann, M. The Sources of Social Power, 1993. Volume II: The Rise of Classes and NationStates 1760–1914. New York: Cambridge University Press. Mejia, D., Restrepo, P., The Economics of the War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking, 2015. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Moreno, R., Kraybill, D.S., Thompson, S.R., An econometric analysis of coca eradication, 2003. Policy in Colombia. World Dev. 31 (2), 375–383. Moser, C., McIlwaine, C., Violence in a post-conflict context: Urban poor perceptions from Guatemala, 2001. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. Muggah, R., Security and post conflict reconstruction: Dealing with fighters in the aftermath of war, 2009. Routledge. Nijkamp, P., Blaas, E., Impact Assessment and Evaluation in Transportation Planning, 1994. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht. Olsson, J., Responses to change in accessibility. Socio-economic impacts of road investment: the distributive outcomes in two rural peripheral Philippine municipalities, 2006. PhD Dissertation, Department of Human and Economic Geography, University of Gothenburg. Owen, W., Transportation and World Development, 1987. Hutchinson, London. Peceny, M., Durnan, M., The FARC’s best friend: U.S. anti-drug policies and the deepening of Colombia’s civil war in the 1990, 2006. Latin Am. Polit. Soc. 48 (2), 95-116. Prem, M., Rivera, A., Romero, D., Vargas, J. F. Killing social leaders for territorial control: the unintended consequences of peace, 2018. LACEA Working Paper No. 0019. Rammelt, C., Leung, M., Tracing The Causal Through Local Perceptions of Rural Road Impacts in Ethiopia, 2017. World Development Vol. 95, pp. 1-14. Rigg, J., Wittayapak. C. The Greater Mekong Subregion (Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam), 2007. WDR09 Research on Spatial Dimensions of Economic Development-Asia. Sarmiento M., Giraldo BH., Ayala H., Uran A., Soto A.C., Martinez L. Characteristics and challenges of small-scale gold mining in Colombia.,2013. Chapter 4. Small-scale gold mining in the Amazon. Cremers L., Kolen J., De Theije M (Eds). Cedla Amsterdam. Sou, Kollektivtrafik med manniskan i centrum. 2003. Naringsdepartementet. Betankande fran Kollektivtrafikkommitten. SOU 2003:67. Soifer, H. State Infrastructural Power: Conceptualization and Measurement in Empirical Analysis, 2008. Studies in Comparative International Development 43 (3-4): 231–51. Transport Policy, Special issue: international comparison of evaluation process of transport projects, 2000. Transport Policy 7 (1), 1-88. Thomson, F. The agrarian question and violence in Colombia: conflict and development, 2011. Journal of Agrarian Change, 11(3), 321-356. UNODC - United Nations Office On Drugs And Crime. Monitoreo de territorios afectados por cultivos il´ıcitos, 2016. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime New York, United Nations and Government of Colombia, 151pp. UNCTAD, The Least Developed Countries Report 2006, 2007 United Nations, New York. Vickerman, R. Evaluation methodologies for transport projects in the United Kingdom, 2000. Transport Policy 7 (1), 7-16. World Bank. Evaluation of World Bank Support to Transportation Infrastructure., 2018. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications.
score 12,131701