Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections

Elections are regularly held in countries facing ongoing civil conflicts, including in India, Iraq, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Citizens frequently go to the polls having endured years of violence between armed groups and governments. A growing literature questions how violence conditions...

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Autores Principales: Weintraub, Michael, Vargas, Juan F., Flores, Thomas
Formato: Artículo (Article)
Lenguaje:Inglés (English)
Publicado: 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21456
https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015573348
id ir-10336-21456
recordtype dspace
spelling ir-10336-214562020-05-13T19:49:43Z Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections Weintraub, Michael Vargas, Juan F. Flores, Thomas Guerra civil Elecciones Votación Insurgencia El proceso político Democracia Votación Guerra Civil Civil war Elections Voting Insurgency Elections are regularly held in countries facing ongoing civil conflicts, including in India, Iraq, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Citizens frequently go to the polls having endured years of violence between armed groups and governments. A growing literature questions how violence conditions voters’ support for incumbents versus challengers, and for hawks versus doves. We analyze this relationship in the context of the 2014 presidential election in Colombia, an election defined by candidates’ positions on negotiations with the country’s largest insurgent group, the FARC. Our results show an inverted-U relationship between past insurgent violence and vote share for President Juan Manuel Santos, the pro-peace candidate: he performed better in communities with moderate levels of insurgent violence and poorly in communities with both very high and very low violence. We also find that areas where the FARC originally mounted attacks 50 years ago more strongly supported Santos. The article concludes by comparing these results with past studies of violence and vote choice in Israel, Turkey, and Spain. © The Author(s) 2015. 2015 2020-04-03T01:27:13Z info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2053-1680 https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21456 https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015573348 eng info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess application/pdf
institution EdocUR - Universidad del Rosario
collection DSpace
language Inglés (English)
topic Guerra civil
Elecciones
Votación
Insurgencia
El proceso político
Democracia
Votación
Guerra Civil
Civil war
Elections
Voting
Insurgency
spellingShingle Guerra civil
Elecciones
Votación
Insurgencia
El proceso político
Democracia
Votación
Guerra Civil
Civil war
Elections
Voting
Insurgency
Weintraub, Michael
Vargas, Juan F.
Flores, Thomas
Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
description Elections are regularly held in countries facing ongoing civil conflicts, including in India, Iraq, Nigeria, the Philippines, and Ukraine. Citizens frequently go to the polls having endured years of violence between armed groups and governments. A growing literature questions how violence conditions voters’ support for incumbents versus challengers, and for hawks versus doves. We analyze this relationship in the context of the 2014 presidential election in Colombia, an election defined by candidates’ positions on negotiations with the country’s largest insurgent group, the FARC. Our results show an inverted-U relationship between past insurgent violence and vote share for President Juan Manuel Santos, the pro-peace candidate: he performed better in communities with moderate levels of insurgent violence and poorly in communities with both very high and very low violence. We also find that areas where the FARC originally mounted attacks 50 years ago more strongly supported Santos. The article concludes by comparing these results with past studies of violence and vote choice in Israel, Turkey, and Spain. © The Author(s) 2015.
format Artículo (Article)
author Weintraub, Michael
Vargas, Juan F.
Flores, Thomas
author_facet Weintraub, Michael
Vargas, Juan F.
Flores, Thomas
author_sort Weintraub, Michael
title Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
title_short Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
title_full Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
title_fullStr Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
title_full_unstemmed Vote choice and legacies of violence: Evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
title_sort vote choice and legacies of violence: evidence from the 2014 colombian presidential elections
publishDate 2015
url https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/21456
https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015573348
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